Palantir vs. Panic: How to Keep Your Head if September Sells Off

As we wrote about nearly two and a half years ago, the old adage of, “Sell in May and go away,” is essentially dead. Yet again in 2025, that would have been bad advice.

We’ve found that the summer months of the stock market to be more complex – a series of rallies and drawdowns from May all the way through to November.  There is data, too, to the weakness we’ve seen in recent days could bring choppy weakness for a while, perhaps well into October.

What should one do currently?

For investors holding onto some large gainers, it’s okay to think to find ways to lighten up ahead of the often-tricky month of September. Also, identify your underperformers and consider harvesting tax losses soon, then be patient when thinking about re-entering these trades as we’ll need to get through Jackson Hole, the September 30^th quarter end and all its window-dressing.

Overall, the next few weeks could be a more complex period than we’ve seen in quite some time. Let me give you an example by looking at the price action of one popular stock: Palantir (PLTR)

 

 

Ideally, one  might have sold a partial position when the stock was extended and up near the top of its extended trading range. The action in this name shows how hard that can be – the selloff came fast.

For those with a full position at this point, however, don’t throw all of it overboard even though PLTR violated support at $152 (and then a subsequent additional sell signal at $146). Those breaks suggest more challenging action can be expected. On the positive side, however, those breaches of support have taken place near the middle of its trading band, meaning much of the expected selling has probably already occurred.

Holders should be patient here and expect backing and filling that may feel uncomfortable for a few weeks.

If you have defined Palantir as a core technology holding you plan on keeping for years, the long side is still worth leaning toward. Use this period to initiate or add to positions over the next month or two.

We remain bullish and expect a few weeks of choppiness during the “scary” months of September and October to position the market for a strong 4^th quarter, perhaps kicked of in mid-October as 3^rd quarter earnings reports get underway.