Granite Wealth Management

5% Pullback & Option Trading Myth Redux

On January 26th I published a piece titled “The 5% Pullback,” and, at that time, I felt that we were in for a consolidation period from the bottom of October 12, 2022 (which I felt would hold) after the dramatic bounce from that low (19%… just shy of a “New Bull Market”).

As the anxiety from the Silicon Valley Bank crisis took hold in early March, that pullback started.

But undershot the magnitude of it.

Top to bottom, it took the market down 7.48% (SPX high of 4176.54 on 2/7/23 to bottom (so far) of 3864.11 on 3/16/23)

This is healthy market action and adds an important part of our chart analysis……. A higher bottom.

I also discussed in a separate piece the spotty track record of the mantra and promised to revisit after the March Quadruple Option Expiation of 2023.

How did it go?

Still spotty, based on the myth.

The week expiration 3/13 to 3/17 the SPX gained 1.58%. The week after .49%.

Might it be explained by a sigh of relief that the banking crisis was easing? Could be. But this continues to be a myth.