Summer is here, and that means, for many, trips to the lake or ocean. That first touch of water on the toes, however, can quell the excitement pretty fast. Understandably, too. You just spent at least the last few months (at least for those of us in the northern half of the US) reminiscing about those hot summer days, making memories around your favorite watering hole to get through the never ending bite of winter. But now you’re here. You’re standing in front of that water, but it just doesn’t feel as warm as nostalgia told you it would. But that should be expected, right? We need some warmer days and seasonal weather patterns to shift before the water temperature changes.
Riding through a bear market in the equity and bond markets can feel just like winter. Historically speaking, you know the bear market won’t last forever, just like winter won’t, and after a while, the bear market brings back memories of those happier times, riding the bull market to all time highs in your portfolio.
But don’t confuse yourself – the water will feel colder at first, just like the markets will not feel so confidently welcoming at first either. Those bull market days felt like your portfolio couldn’t lose month-to-month, just like how warm those swims feel in late August. Seasonal weather changes are predictable, though. The investment markets are not so much. We know if we wait until August, the water will be plenty warm, but we will miss out on months worth of those fun times.
What about the markets, though? Those aren’t nearly as predictable, and there’s much more at stake than a slight chill from cooler waters.
Is it measured patience, or perpetual indecisiveness?
Just weeks ago, headlines surrounding the US equity market’s end of the bear market could be seen everywhere. While that’s nice to hear, if that’s what you were waiting for, you missed out on some quality time in the water.
Starting October of 2022, we’ve seen a lot of positive developments in the markets:
- The S&P 500 with two very strong quarters in a row: 2022 Q4 +7%, 2023 Q1 +7.03%
- International equities with strong end to 2022, with both developed and emerging markets +10% in Q4
- Technology sector rise from 9th (of 11) to 1st place YTD (and sector is up 38% YTD)
- Industrials sector rise from 5th to 2nd YTD
- Homebuilders group continue rise upward that started in November 2022 (+35% in that period)
- Semiconductors group up more than 42% YTD
- Growth stocks overtaking value stocks in the favorability battle
- Cryptocurrency is also involved: Bitcoin +81.65% YTD
If you’re looking for confirmations that the market is investable, those alerts have been sounding for quite some time. If you’re looking for a perfect time to get back into the markets, you’ll likely never find it. If you’re looking for help with an investment plan, then we are your solution – let’s talk today. Set up a call with us at Granite Wealth Management, and we will work with you to build that plan.
Don’t wait until August to take a swim. Dip your toes in.
