August was down, will September be even worse? Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur? Markets may continue to find reasons to be nervous until October earnings reports. With a possible short-term range of 4200 – 4800 on the S&P, what kind of September action will we see?
As can be seen in the chart above, the healthy series of higher highs (columns of Xs) that we’ve seen since late last year remains intact.
In my 3rd quarter outlook, I wrote that investors should expect some consolidation of the year’s gains in Q3, but that the bull market was still intact. I still feel that way.
Yes, August was down – but the month-end rally meant it only fell 1.4%. And sure, September is a historically weak month. For now, I expect any short-term weakness will end up being viewed as standard consolidation when we look back on it.
Conclusion? The stock market is in the midst of the pause that refreshes. We’ll keep a close eye on market action and will turn bearish, if warranted, but for now I’m expecting additional year-end gains after more churning during this, the “scariest” market month.
